MR
ModelRumors.ai FRONTIER AI BUYER'S GUIDE

PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY LEDGER · DATA/FORECASTS.JSON

Our Release Forecast Track Record

Anyone can make vague predictions and quietly edit them later. Every release window on ModelRumors.ai is committed to data/forecasts.json with the date it was made, the start and end of the window, and the plain-language gap calculation. When a lab ships, we record the actual release date and whether it landed inside the window.

Total Forecasts Logged
6
Committed in git history
Active Pending Windows
6
Awaiting next official lab release
Resolved Outcomes
0
0 resolved yet
Audit Ledger
data/forecasts.json ↗
Machine-readable JSON ledger

ALL LOGGED FORECASTS (6)

Active & Historical Release Windows

Read hits with the window width in mind. A window spans the shortest to the longest of the lab's last four release gaps, so a lab with uneven gaps gets a wide window that is easy to land in. Current windows average 48 days wide. A narrow window that hits says more than a wide one.

OPENAI · FORECAST LOGGED 2026-11-05

Next OpenAI Public Model Release

Last verified public release: GPT-6.1 Terra (2026-10-26) ↗
PENDING OUTCOME
PREDICTED WINDOW 2026-11-02 to 2026-12-21 50 days wide
RECENT PUBLIC GAPS 56d → 19d → 7d → 27d
ACTUAL OUTCOME Awaiting release

Method: Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (56d, 19d, 7d, 27d): shortest gap 7 days (2026-11-02), median gap 23 days (2026-11-18), longest gap 56 days (2026-12-21).

ANTHROPIC · FORECAST LOGGED 2026-11-05

Next Anthropic Public Model Release

Last verified public release: Claude Haiku 5.5 (2026-10-07) ↗
PENDING OUTCOME
PREDICTED WINDOW 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-15 34 days wide
RECENT PUBLIC GAPS 39d → 21d → 6d → 9d
ACTUAL OUTCOME Awaiting release

Method: Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (39d, 21d, 6d, 9d): shortest gap 6 days (2026-10-13), median gap 15 days (2026-10-22), longest gap 39 days (2026-11-15).

GOOGLE DEEPMIND · FORECAST LOGGED 2026-11-05

Gemini 4 Carbon (Google DeepMind)

Last verified public release: Gemini 4 Argon (2026-10-13) ↗
PENDING OUTCOME
PREDICTED WINDOW 2026-11-02 to 2026-12-15 44 days wide
RECENT PUBLIC GAPS 63d → 23d → 20d → 41d
ACTUAL OUTCOME Awaiting release

Method: Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (63d, 23d, 20d, 41d): shortest gap 20 days (2026-11-02), median gap 32 days (2026-11-14), longest gap 63 days (2026-12-15).

XAI · FORECAST LOGGED 2026-11-05

Grok 5 (xAI)

Last verified public release: Grok 4.7 (2026-09-21) ↗
PENDING OUTCOME
PREDICTED WINDOW 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-29 35 days wide
RECENT PUBLIC GAPS 51d → 69d → 35d → 40d
ACTUAL OUTCOME Awaiting release

Method: Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (51d, 69d, 35d, 40d): shortest gap 35 days (2026-10-26), median gap 46 days (2026-11-06), longest gap 69 days (2026-11-29).

DEEPSEEK · FORECAST LOGGED 2026-11-05

DeepSeek V4.1-Pro (DeepSeek)

Last verified public release: DeepSeek V4.1-Flash-1017 (2026-10-17) ↗
PENDING OUTCOME
PREDICTED WINDOW 2026-10-30 to 2027-01-23 86 days wide
RECENT PUBLIC GAPS 98d → 13d → 28d → 37d
ACTUAL OUTCOME Awaiting release

Method: Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (98d, 13d, 28d, 37d): shortest gap 13 days (2026-10-30), median gap 32 days (2026-11-18), longest gap 98 days (2027-01-23).

META · FORECAST LOGGED 2026-11-05

Next Meta Public Model Release

Last verified public release: Muse Spark Open (2026-10-15) ↗
PENDING OUTCOME
PREDICTED WINDOW 2026-10-18 to 2026-11-24 38 days wide
RECENT PUBLIC GAPS 5d → 23d → 40d → 3d
ACTUAL OUTCOME Awaiting release

Method: Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (5d, 23d, 40d, 3d): shortest gap 3 days (2026-10-18), median gap 14 days (2026-10-29), longest gap 40 days (2026-11-24).