{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T16:41:53Z",
  "policy": "Every release window forecast made on ModelRumors.ai is committed to this ledger with the date made, the predicted window start and end dates, and the plain-language gap calculation. When a lab ships a new public model, the forecast is resolved with the actual release date and official source link without editing the original window.",
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "id": "fc-2026-10-26-openai",
      "lab_id": "openai",
      "lab": "OpenAI",
      "target_model": "Next OpenAI Public Model Release",
      "last_release_model": "GPT-6.1 Terra",
      "last_release_date": "2026-10-26",
      "last_release_source_url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-6-1-terra/",
      "date_made": "2026-11-05",
      "window_start": "2026-11-02",
      "window_end": "2026-12-21",
      "typical_date": "2026-11-18",
      "method": "Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (56d, 19d, 7d, 27d): shortest gap 7 days (2026-11-02), median gap 23 days (2026-11-18), longest gap 56 days (2026-12-21).",
      "prior_gaps_days": [
        56,
        19,
        7,
        27
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      "actual_model": null,
      "actual_date": null,
      "actual_source_url": null,
      "landed_in_window": null
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    {
      "id": "fc-2026-10-07-anthropic",
      "lab_id": "anthropic",
      "lab": "Anthropic",
      "target_model": "Next Anthropic Public Model Release",
      "last_release_model": "Claude Haiku 5.5",
      "last_release_date": "2026-10-07",
      "last_release_source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/claude-haiku-5-5",
      "date_made": "2026-11-05",
      "window_start": "2026-10-13",
      "window_end": "2026-11-15",
      "typical_date": "2026-10-22",
      "method": "Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (39d, 21d, 6d, 9d): shortest gap 6 days (2026-10-13), median gap 15 days (2026-10-22), longest gap 39 days (2026-11-15).",
      "prior_gaps_days": [
        39,
        21,
        6,
        9
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      "status": "pending",
      "actual_model": null,
      "actual_date": null,
      "actual_source_url": null,
      "landed_in_window": null
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    {
      "id": "fc-2026-10-13-google",
      "lab_id": "google",
      "lab": "Google DeepMind",
      "target_model": "Gemini 4 Carbon (Google DeepMind)",
      "last_release_model": "Gemini 4 Argon",
      "last_release_date": "2026-10-13",
      "last_release_source_url": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/introducing-gemini-4-argon/",
      "date_made": "2026-11-05",
      "window_start": "2026-11-02",
      "window_end": "2026-12-15",
      "typical_date": "2026-11-14",
      "method": "Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (63d, 23d, 20d, 41d): shortest gap 20 days (2026-11-02), median gap 32 days (2026-11-14), longest gap 63 days (2026-12-15).",
      "prior_gaps_days": [
        63,
        23,
        20,
        41
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      "status": "pending",
      "actual_model": null,
      "actual_date": null,
      "actual_source_url": null,
      "landed_in_window": null
    },
    {
      "id": "fc-2026-09-21-xai",
      "lab_id": "xai",
      "lab": "xAI",
      "target_model": "Grok 5 (xAI)",
      "last_release_model": "Grok 4.7",
      "last_release_date": "2026-09-21",
      "last_release_source_url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-4-7",
      "date_made": "2026-11-05",
      "window_start": "2026-10-26",
      "window_end": "2026-11-29",
      "typical_date": "2026-11-06",
      "method": "Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (51d, 69d, 35d, 40d): shortest gap 35 days (2026-10-26), median gap 46 days (2026-11-06), longest gap 69 days (2026-11-29).",
      "prior_gaps_days": [
        51,
        69,
        35,
        40
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      "status": "pending",
      "actual_model": null,
      "actual_date": null,
      "actual_source_url": null,
      "landed_in_window": null
    },
    {
      "id": "fc-2026-10-17-deepseek",
      "lab_id": "deepseek",
      "lab": "DeepSeek",
      "target_model": "DeepSeek V4.1-Pro (DeepSeek)",
      "last_release_model": "DeepSeek V4.1-Flash-1017",
      "last_release_date": "2026-10-17",
      "last_release_source_url": "https://api-docs.deepseek.com/news/news261017",
      "date_made": "2026-11-05",
      "window_start": "2026-10-30",
      "window_end": "2027-01-23",
      "typical_date": "2026-11-18",
      "method": "Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (98d, 13d, 28d, 37d): shortest gap 13 days (2026-10-30), median gap 32 days (2026-11-18), longest gap 98 days (2027-01-23).",
      "prior_gaps_days": [
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        13,
        28,
        37
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      "status": "pending",
      "actual_model": null,
      "actual_date": null,
      "actual_source_url": null,
      "landed_in_window": null
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    {
      "id": "fc-2026-10-15-meta",
      "lab_id": "meta",
      "lab": "Meta",
      "target_model": "Next Meta Public Model Release",
      "last_release_model": "Muse Spark Open",
      "last_release_date": "2026-10-15",
      "last_release_source_url": "https://research.meta.ai/blog/muse-spark-open",
      "date_made": "2026-11-05",
      "window_start": "2026-10-18",
      "window_end": "2026-11-24",
      "typical_date": "2026-10-29",
      "method": "Range and median of the last 4 public release gaps (5d, 23d, 40d, 3d): shortest gap 3 days (2026-10-18), median gap 14 days (2026-10-29), longest gap 40 days (2026-11-24).",
      "prior_gaps_days": [
        5,
        23,
        40,
        3
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      "status": "pending",
      "actual_model": null,
      "actual_date": null,
      "actual_source_url": null,
      "landed_in_window": null
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  ]
}